Here is round five in our coverage of the major Oscar categories. Today, we tackle one of the most competitive races: Best Actress in a Leading Role. For older posts, check here. And don't forget to check back Thursday for our Best Actor predictions.
The Award
By my best estimate, there are no noteworthy trends in this category over the past decade. So I'm going to turn the attention to the major snubs in this category. First, Kate Winslet's nod in The Reader over Revolutionary Road shows just how shrewd Harvey Weinstein is when it comes to the Oscars. Second, Kristin Scott Thomas' omission from this race is a huge detriment to a very strong pool of candidates and makes the race far less interesting. I guess French is so last-year. Finally, just because she seems to get nominated every year without fail, I'm a little disappointed not to see Cate Blanchett in here for her performance in Benjamin Button. Cate--the new Meryl?
The Nominees
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Though I wouldn't call Hathaway ugly in this movie, she tones down the attractiveness a bit. The Academy loves it when pretty young things get roughed up for their performances (see: Kidman, Nicole; Swank, Hilary; Theron, Charlize). As the only nomination from Jonathan Demme's brilliant picture, Hathaway's chances are good. She has been building a lot of buzz since her debut in The Princess Diaries and this is the first chance she's had to really show her chops.
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Jolie got early buzz for what was otherwise an underwhelming film. It most be a pleasant surprise for her to be in here. If the one-time Oscar winner was able to take home a golden statue along with her husband, this could go down as the cutest Academy Award ceremony ever. But ever since the release of Gran Torino, Changeling has been a nonentity in this race. Throw Jolie in the "It was an honor just to be nominated" pool.
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Melissa Leo is the underdog here. She managed to sneak in under the radar in an indie pic and is the best hope in perhaps all of the major categories for an upset win. But Marion Cotillard's out-of-nowhere win is undoubtedly bad news for Leo. Two unknowns in a row is unlikely.
Meryl Streep, Doubt
While looking up Streep, I was surprised to learn that in spite of her 15,862 16 prior nominations, she has only won twice. If Viola Davis loses to Penelope Cruz, Streep is this movie's best chance for a win. Seeing as Helen Mirren is the only older, heavy-hitter to win in this category in the past decade, Streep could have a lock. And she certainly chews up enough scenery to win an Oscar for this role.
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Winslet has to have set a record for most nominations sans win by now. As I said earlier, her performance in her husband's movie was the more deserving one and Harvey Weinstein's politics will likely help her extend that record. A win for her would be a real detriment to the credibility of the Academy.
The Winner: Anne Hathaway
If Mickey Rourke takes Best Actor, Anne Hathaway will probably give this award up to Leo or, more likely, Streep. But I'm going to assume Sean Penn deservedly wins for Milk. That gives this award to Hathaway who delivered one of last year's best performances and certainly deserves a win for her raw, emotional performance. Let's just hope this is only the beginning of her career in this category.
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