Most Analysts Predict A Tar Heel Win

Forget about home-court advantage: Most media analysts have predicted a North Carolina win over Duke tonight in Cameron Indoor Stadium.

A sampling of opinions:

• SI.com's Seth Davis: I don't pretend to have all the answers, but I can predict what I think will happen. The Heels will be tougher on D, they'll overmatch Duke inside and they'll benefit from Ellington's continued hot hand. I do believe Duke will put up a good fight, but in the end that won't be enough. Round 1 goes to the Heels, 88-80.
• The N&O's Caulton Tudor: While there's still some chance it could wind up that way at the top of the standings, I just don't see the Blue Devils winning the game in Durham tonight that would be the key to their title hopes. My call: Carolina 80, Duke 75.
• The Daily Tar Hole (it's appropriate today): Not many classes can say they've gone undefeated at Duke. The Blue Devils made it clear they aware of that fact, but there's a big difference between knowing what you're up against and stopping it. The bottom line: North Carolina 83, Duke 81.
• The Chronicle: Stumbling through its past four games with a 2-2 record, Duke will need a superstar performance from Gerald Henderson to have a chance to win. Hansbrough will obviously be difficult to stop inside, but the key edge the Tar Heels hold over the Blue Devils is the speed and scoring prowess of Lawson and Ellington. Look for Duke to keep it close but UNC to pull away late, taking its fourth straight game at Cameron Indoor Stadium. UNC 81, Duke 75.
• The Sports Blog's Tim Britton: I envision this game unfolding a lot like last year’s at Cameron: UNC ahead most of the night, Duke comes back fueled by its defense and the crowd, Carolina makes one more play in the final minutes. And the seniors graduate without a Carolina bonfire. North Carolina, 76-70.

The N&O's Luke DeCock predicts a 78-76 Duke win, but it may not be a good sign if you're a gambler: even Las Vegas foresees a three-point Tar Heel win.