THE CONTENTS: It's another ho-hum midweek game in the ACC, as No. 6 Duke hosts No. 3 North Carolina. Or, it's the best rivalry in sports. Matter of semantics.
You can see the game locally on WRAL (Raycom), announced by Tim Brant and Mike Gminski. That means Billy Packer, who usually called the game for Raycom, was fired by them and CBS.
The good news? Watching locally means you're not stuck with Mike Patrick and Dick Vitale on ESPN. You can hear the game, as always, on 620 AM with Bob Harris and John Roth.
THE EXPOSITION: Duke (20-3) is coming off 65 really bad minutes of basketball saved by 20 really good ones in the second half against Miami. The Blue Devils need to parlay that into 40 really good ones tonight.
North Carolina (21-2) is back on a roll, riding a seven-game winning streak--the last win a mighty impressive home rout of Virginia (that's sarcasm).
UNC leads the all-time series 128-97, and the Tar Heels have won four of the last six in the series, including three straight in Durham. Redshirt senior David McClure is the only Blue Devil to beat UNC in Cameron.
THE KEY MATCHUP
Point Guard: Greg Paulus/Nolan Smith v. Ty Lawson
All season long, we talked about how starting Nolan Smith meant Duke finally had someone capable of slowing Lawson down defensively. But Smith's horrendous performance at Clemson last week handed the starting role back to the embattled senior Greg Paulus, who responded with a season-high 18 points despite some questionable shot selection against Miami.
Lawson, meanwhile, has improved tremendously in his junior season, and he was pretty good to begin with. His assist-to-turnover ratio is a ludicrous 3.8 to 1, which compares favorably to Smith's 1 to 1.1. Lawson is as good on the break as any point guard in some time (Illinois' Dee Brown comes to mind, as does Lawson's predecessor, Raymond Felton).
The key for Duke, then, becomes, first, getting some offense out of the point guard position, whether it's Paulus from beyond the arc--he hit six threes in the win in Chapel Hill last year--or Smith driving. So, it seems likely that Duke will lose this matchup. More importantly, however, Blue Devils' point guards need to control the tempo. Duke likes to play uptempo, but it doesn't do it as well as UNC. And Paulus and Smith must must must get back in transition and not be afraid to commit fouls on the ground to prevent a two-on-one break. This has been a problem for both: Paulus' long threes lead to long rebounds and breakouts, Smith often gets caught in the offense and doesn't get back.
Don't expect Duke to win this matchup; the Blue Devils just can't lose it too badly.
THEY MAY NOT BE "KEY," BUT THESE MATCHUPS ARE STILL PRETTY IMPORTANT:
Shooting Guard: Jon Scheyer v. Wayne Ellington
Two players going in opposite directions. Scheyer has struggled mightily in ACC play, shooting under 28 percent from three-point range. Ellington, meanwhile, has been off-the-charts lately and arguably Carolina's best player for the last two-to-three weeks. As much as people talk about Henderson and Ellington, it will likely be Scheyer guarding the UNC two-guard and vice versa.
If Duke wants to win not only tonight, but long-term, it needs Scheyer to return to form. Tonight would be an excellent time to continue the progress he made against Miami.
Power Forward: Kyle Singler v. Tyler Hansbrough
Singler may not guard Hansbrough much of the night, but you can be pretty sure "Psycho T" will be checking Kyle on the perimeter. Singler's taken a lot of shots to score his points lately, and you hope he hasn't hit the wall that slowed him down the end of last season. Singler has to be able to take advantage of Hansbrough on the perimeter, get a step into the lane and be a creator for the offense.
Defensively, whoever guards Hansbrough, either foul him hard or don't foul him at all. Do NOT give him three-point plays, since he absorbs contact so well to finish after the foul. (Or don't let him get to the line at all, like in last year's game at Cameron, which was officiated remarkably loosely.)
THE X-FACTOR
Brian Zoubek
There's no easy way to say it: After a breakout performance against the Lilliputian frontline of Maryland, Zoubek has regressed in the two weeks since, losing his starting nod and much of his playing time. That being said, the 7-foot-1 junior has a surprising history of success guarding Tyler Hansbrough, who has been bothered by length in the past. If Zoubek can give Duke 12-15 solid minutes, cleaning the defensive boards and limiting Hansbrough, it may be the boost that puts the Blue Devils over the top.
WHAT THE LOCAL MEDIA ARE SAYING: From Stephen Allan and the esteemed Chronicle:
The cog that has made the Blue Devils roll so far has been their defense, which is holding opponents to just 61 points per game, the best in the ACC. Contrast that to the Tar Heels, who average 92.3 points per game, more than 10 points better than the next conference foe, and it would seem that whichever team exerts its will would win.Last year's games, though, suggested that one style took over the game for both teams-and ironically, each team won using the other's identity. It was Duke which outshot North Carolina in the first game in Chapel Hill for an 89-78 victory, and then the Tar Heels did not let the Blue Devils score over the final 5:42 to win 76-68 in Cameron a month later.
Also check out stories onGerald Henderson by Joe Drews and one on Wayne Ellington by Madeline Perez.
TIM'S FAVORITE PLAYER IN UNC HISTORY IS...: I didn't even like UNC before I went to Duke, so this is a trick question. (Although, gun to my head, how can I go against Serge Zwikker?)
TIM'S FAVORITE MOMENT IN DUKE-UNC HISTORY IS...: One of Zwikker's finest moments, when the center missed two free throws in overtime to allow Jeff Capel to nail the three-pointer and send the 1995 contest at Cameron to double overtime (and the shot was so good, nobody cares what happened in double overtime).
TIM'S LEAST FAVORITE PLAYER IN UNC HISTORY NOT NAMED TYLER HANSBROUGH IS...: Let's make that "are": Rasheed Wallace, Jerry Stackhouse, Dante Calabria, Ed Cota, Vince Carter and Rashad McCants.
WHY IS THIS GAMEDAY A LITTLE SHORTER AND LESS THOUGHT-OUT THAN USUAL?: Come on...it's like 1300 words! And it's because I'm in the walk-up line and Dell laptop batteries leave a little to be desired.
THE DENOUEMENT: I said the same thing before the contest with Wake Forest: There are a lot of ifs required for Duke to win this game. If Jon Scheyer gets back on track (and not in a 4-for-12 kind of way)...if David McClure, Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek can combine for rougly 50 quality minutes on the defensive end, especially on the glass (and maybe, MAYBE, make an open jumper or two)...if Greg Paulus' game against Miami was the precursor of an out-of-the-blue Chad Pennington-esque comeback story...if those things happen, I like the Blue Devils' chances. And I think many of them will. I can see Scheyer hitting some big shots, I can see Zoubek providing a lift, I can see McClure and Thomas just about negating Deon Thompson inside, I may even be able to see Paulus competing on the defensive end with Ty Lawson.
But I also see one possession, where Carolina gets a key offensive rebound for a kickout Ellington three or a Hansbrough three-point play, and that could be the difference. I envision this game unfolding a lot like last year's at Cameron: UNC ahead most of the night, Duke comes back fueled by its defense and the crowd, Carolina makes one more play in the final minutes.
And the seniors graduate without a Carolina bonfire.
THE VERDICT: North Carolina, 76-70.
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