Oscar Predictions - Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz. Courtesy Boston Globe.

The Award

The Best Supporting Actress category features the most diverse selection of actors in acting races this year, as it is the only acting category with non-white nominees.

The Nominees

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Cruz, who plays Javier Bardem’s semi-insane ex-girlfriend in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, is definitely the front-runner at the moment. Cruz has already picked up a handful of awards for her neurotic character, and the fact that she switches back and forth between Spanish and English shows she’s got that international flavor the Academy loves (remember when… every actor who got an Oscar last year was not American?). Plus, Cruz has clocked in some very critically acclaimed roles in the past (Volver, Elegy) and also is incredibly entertaining and funny in VCB. Happy movies are clearly the thing this year (cough, economic crisis, cough).

Amy Adams & Viola Davis, Doubt

Don’t be surprised to see either of the two Doubt ladies, Viola Davis and Amy Adams, steal the statue from Cruz. Both Davis and Adams have gotten rave reviews for their performances as Mrs. Miller and Sister James respectively. Davis is incredibly empathetic and Adams is considered as one of Hollywood’s favorite success stories (especially after last year’s Enchanted). Both performances are creations of the brilliant John Patrick Shanley, and as Meryl Streep and Philip Seymour Hoffman generally seem unlikely winners in their acting categories, the Academy might want to honor the film with an award here.

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Tomei is part-prostitute, part-girlfriend and all damaged woman Cassidy in The Wrestler. Tomei, who won an Oscar in this category back in 1993 for My Cousin Vinny, which featured arguably the funniest courtroom scene in film history, plays a much different, much fuller character in Darren Aronofsky’s film. Tomei is an unlikely win, especially considering she has already won before, but has nonetheless garnered a great deal of praise, and has shown she can do both dramatic and comedic roles.

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Rounding out the five actresses is the incredible Taraji P. Henson for her role as Queenie in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. Henson, who I thought deserved an Oscar nom for her performance in 2005’s Hustle & Flow, delivers an incredible performance and holds her own against Pitt and Blanchett. Henson is a long shot, but clearly has a great career ahead of her.

The Winner: Penelope Cruz

All in all, Cruz will probably walk away with the Oscar, but the category will definitely be one to watch.

Check back Thursday for more predictions.

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