Oscar Predictions: Best Adapated Screenplay

If the Oscars were a game, Harvey Weinstein would win. Courtesy Salon.

Here is the second entry in our weeks-long analysis of the most coveted categories in the Academy Awards. For more posts, check here. Today, the category is Best Adapted Screenplay.

The Nominees

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Eric Roth)

Every other screenwriter came into this category with only one nomination. Roth comes in with three and a win for Forrest Gump in 1994 (perhaps explaining the similarities between the two films). But Ben Button has a lot working against it. For one, the film rides on its technical marvels. The screenplay is certainly nice, but it's a visual film through-and-through. More importantly, it's the only screenplay to have a short story as source material. And although Brokeback Mountain, another adapted short story, took the win in this category in 2005. The last time before that? All About Eve. In 1950. But this is a film that could sweep the technical categories and a win here could be the Academy's concession toward David Fincher's epic, similar to what the Brokeback win was in 2005. Unfortunately, this is a very loose adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald's shorty story and that could hurt its chances.

Doubt (John Patrick Shanley)

John Patrick Shanley joins Roth as the only previous winner for Moonstruck--his only previous nomination. Plays tend to be unsuccessful--the last winners were Sling Blade and Driving Miss Daisy--in this field. Shanley's picture, however, is one that hinges almost exclusively on acting and the screenplay. But its hype is minimal at this point and as mildly topical as it is, it's almost too heavy-handed to merit serious consideration.

Frost/Nixon (Peter Morgan)

The other adapted stage play, Frost/Nixon is a script enlivened by Frank Langella and Michael Sheen's performances. It's a talking pictures, which draws a lot of attention to the writing, boding well for the Ron Howard picture. It also benefits from timeliness with George W. Bush's recent exit from a controversial tenure in the Oval Office. It has to fight off all the Slumdog buzz, but this might be the most deserving nominee.

The Reader (David Hare)

Blame Harvey Weinstein for this film taking an undeserved spot in far too many of this year's Oscar categories. The Oscar-monger plays the politics of the award show better than any other but don't expect the most poorly-reviewed film in this category to make it to the winner's circle.

Slumdog Millionaire (Simon Beaufoy)

The past six times an eventual Best Picture-winner has been nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay, that winner also takes this prize. The exceptions are The Pianist which lost the top prize to Chicago in 2002 and Sideways which took the screenplay award but lost to Million Dollar Baby in 2004. With all the positive hype surrounding Slumdog, it seems like a lock for Best Picture. All the attention this film is getting--and its lack of acting nods (no firsts for the sub-continent this year)--will likely translate to a winner here.

The Winner: Slumdog Millionaire

In my opinion, this is an especially weak year at the Oscars. I found Slumdog just a bit too cute and gimmicky, but it seems like a lock. When I walked out of Danny Boyle's movie, I certainly wasn't floored by the screenplay, but I wasn't that impressed by any of the other nominees. Frost/Nixon did the most for me of all these films, but there were plenty of better smaller films. By default, add one to the Slumdog count.

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