Since the publication of Michael Lewis' superb Moneyball, which, among other things, glorified sabermetrics, sports writers have channeled their inner math geeks. (Hey, if Nate Silver can call an election with statistics, it should be good enough for college basketball, too.) Sports Illustrated's Luke Winn has a history of evaluating teams based on certain relevant statistical categories, and today, he highlighted "defensive efficiency, " the number of points a team allows per 100 possessions, as common cornerstones of title contenders.
"No Final Four team in the past five years has been ranked outside the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency (a competition-adjusted figure)," Winn writes. "And only two Elite Eight teams in the past five years have ranked outside the top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency. It's unlikely that a team will make a deep NCAA tournament run with just a good offense, and only a mediocre D."
It's certainly a hopeful portent for No. 2 Duke, then, that the Blue Devils rank No. 1 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Duke allows just 80.4 points per 100 possessions, topping teams such as No. 1 Pittsburgh (85.5) and No. 3 North Carolina (88.2). And for the record, Ken Pomery, owner of KenPom.com and the man behind these numbers, ranks Duke No. 1 in the nation.
On the flip side, the Blue Devils' offensive efficiency ranks 22nd in the country, while Pitt and UNC are both in the top 10. But hey, the analysis was about defense, right?
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