THE CONTENTS: Newly-minted No. 1 Duke travels to former No. 1 and currently sixth-ranked Wake Forest Wednesday night at 7 p.m. You can catch the game on ESPN with Mike Patrick and Dick Vitale and on 620 AM.
In case that's not enough, though, check in here at The Chronicle's Sports Blog for our live blog during the game. This happens every game, but I usually don't mention it. Why is tomorrow different from any other night? Because yours truly will be writing the live blog. You can thank me later.
THE EXPOSITION: The Blue Devils (18-1, 5-0) are coming off the rout, romp, slaughter, shellacking, annihilation, marauding, manhandling--there are just so many good nouns for it--win over Maryland Saturday. Duke has now won nine consecutive contests and has yet to yield 60 points in an ACC game.
The Demon Deacons (16-1, 3-1), meanwhile, are looking to rebound from their first defeat of the season, a flat 78-71 home loss to Virginia Tech. Prior to that, however, Wake Forest had racked up impressive wins at BYU, vs. UNC, at BC and at Clemson.
Duke and Wake Forest no longer play twice each year, but they will this season, as the Demon Deacons visit Cameron Feb. 22. Duke leads the all-time series, 155-76, but Wake has won four of the last five in Winston-Salem, including last season's 86-73 win over the then-No. 2 Blue Devils.
THE STAKES: Duke can pull two games ahead of Wake in the loss column and justify its standing in the top spot of the poll. Plus, the Blue Devils can prove they can win big games on the road against top-10 teams, which they've already done at not-so-top-10-anymore Purdue.
Finally, revenge. Don't forget about revenge.
THE MATCHUPS:
Point Guard: Nolan Smith vs. Jeff Teague
The two key positions in this game to me are the one and the three. How Duke defends Teague in the backcourt and how it sizes up with Wake's bigger frontline will go a long way toward determining if the Blue Devils survive the week at No. 1.
First things first, Jeff Teague isn't really a point guard. Wake uses him in the same way Davidson uses Steph Curry; namely, to bring the ball up, pass it off and then become a scorer. That leads to a few pros and cons for Duke. First, Nolan Smith should be able to pressure Teague into some turnovers because he's not a pure point and is very susceptible to giving it up--he averages just under four turnovers per game. On the other hand, once Teague moves off the ball, he gains a little bit of an advantage on Smith, who, as good as he is pressuring the basketball, struggles at times as an off-the-ball defender.
If Smith can cause enough havoc that Wake needs to play Ishmael Smith the majority of the night at the point, that may reduce the amount of strain on the Blue Devils' frontline. Nobody expects Duke to win this matchup; it just can't lose it as badly as Ty Lawson and North Carolina did.
Shooting Guard: Jon Scheyer vs. L.D. Williams
Here's a matchup the Blue Devils do need to win. Williams is a great glue guy and a solid defender, but he isn't the kind of scorer Scheyer is capable of being. Scheyer got back on track a little bit Saturday with four three-pointers, but he still finished the day 4-of-13 from the field. For Duke to win Wednesday and down the road, it needs Scheyer to be on target.
Small forward: Gerald Henderson vs. Al-Farouq Aminu
This is the other key matchup: How does Henderson, who's been playing out of his mind the last two and a half weeks, handle going up against the 6-foot-9 Aminu? On the offensive side of the ball, Henderson should be able to get a step on Aminu and get into the lane; once there, however, he has to make smart decisions with the ball as Wake's interior help defense is formidable. Defensively, Henderson and Scheyer will spend large parts of this game defending players taller than them. It will be interesting to see if Duke's season-long strategy to switch almost every screen on the perimeter is abandoned due to Wake's size; you don't want to end up with Nolan Smith checking someone eight inches taller than him in the post too frequently.
If Henderson can hold his own on the boards--and for a 6-foot-4 guard, he's as good as they get in that category--it may tip the scale in favor of the Blue Devils.
Power forward: Kyle Singler vs. James Johnson
This may be the best matchup of the night, if not the most significant, largely because I can see the two guys cancelling each other out. Johnson will be as difficult a check as Singler faces all season because of his versatility, but you can probably say the same thing with the roles reversed. Each can play in the post but prefers the perimeter with the ability to knock down shots with range. Again, Singler needs to match Johnson on the glass.
Center: Brian Zoubek vs. Chas McFarland
The battle of the white seven-footers is another one that Duke doesn't necessarily need to win, but can't afford to lose. McFarland has improved as much as Zoubek this season, with his 20-point performance against North Carolina acting as Exhibit A. At the same time, he's every bit as inconsistent as Zoubs, with his 0-point, 5-foul performance versus Virginia Tech the primary evidence. I see this being a wash, but if either team gets a definitive advantage in this matchup, it could sway the outcome.
Bench: Greg Paulus, Lance Thomas and David McClure vs. Ishmael Smith, Harvey Hale and Tony Woods
Paulus, Thomas and McClure are three of the most experienced bench players in the ACC; so are Smith and Hale, both former starters. While Paulus has provided a lift off the bench ever since the Florida State game, it's unlikely he sees too many minutes Wednesday because of Wake's size--Duke will almost certainly not trot out a lineup with both Nolan Smith and Paulus in the game at the same time. Thomas and McClure have shown they are capable of being defenders on the perimeter all season; now they need to do it back in the post against bigger players. They need to be more than 10 fouls.
Ishmael Smith will man the point a lot of the night for Wake, and it will be tougher to pressure him into mistakes. Hale is a very hit-or-miss shooter off the bench; you'll know early on what kind of night it's going to be for him. Woods and David Weaver each provide more size for the Demon Deacons.
THE CONFLICT: Can Duke handle Wake's size? That's it.
WHAT THE MEDIA ARE SAYING: From Jerry Spar of the Boston Herald:
It’s an intriguing matchup of differing styles, especially on defense.Duke, which allows a league-low 59.5 points per game, doesn’t like to give an inch, defending out to the wing. Wake, which is holding opponents to a league-stingiest 36.8 percent from the floor, pressures the dribbler but is less aggressive off the ball, instead focusing on protecting the paint.
CAN YOU ELABORATE ON WAKE'S DEFENSIVE STRATEGY?: Just a little bit. It's called the "pack line defense" and was popularized by Dick Bennett at Wisconsin--where the Badgers reached a Final Four as an 8-seed in 2000--and at Washington State--where it's continued today by Dick's son, Tony.
THAT'S IT?: From me, at least. Here's a website explaining it with the detail and graphs I'm far too lazy to conjure myself.
HOW DOES THAT CHANGE WHAT DUKE DOES OFFENSIVELY?: In theory, it leads to more three-pointers. In theory. But Wake does such a good job recovering that the best option might be to dish it out to guys like Scheyer and Henderson, who pump fake, take a step in and can the midrange jumper.
CRAZY STAT NO. 1: Under Mike Krzyzewski, Duke has played more games as the No. 1 team in the nation (188) than as an unranked team (143).
SELF-FULFILLING PROPHECY FROM LAST SEASON'S MATCHUP: This is what I wrote the day after last season's loss to Wake Forest, which I covered for The Chronicle and in the forerunner to this blog:
As much as I hated seeing Duke lose, it is nice to have Wake back on the national landscape. (I will definitely regret these words next year when the Deacs are a borderline top-15 team or better.)
UNNECESSARY NEWSPAPER TRASH TALK: Come on, Old Gold & Black (the Wake student newspaper), you're telling me you lose as the No. 1 team in the country and that's not even the main story on your front page! We know you won the national championship in soccer, but please, please tell me this is the last time an off-season soccer feature will ever pre-empt a noteworthy basketball story.
CRAZY STAT NO. 2: Duke has not completed a game at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum without having all five starters foul out since January of 2006, a stretch of one game.
TIM'S FAVORITE PLAYER IN WAKE FOREST HISTORY IS...: It doesn't get any simpler than this one for me. If I were to construct a list of my favorite college basketball players of all-time, Tim Duncan would certainly be in the top three. Guy did homage to the name.
(P.S. How crazy is it that Wake Forest, without a single trip to the Elite Eight in the last 15 years, has still produced two transcendent NBA players? Sure, it might be a little early to call Chris Paul transcendent, but we all know he's headed that way, right?)
THE DENOUEMENT: Oh man, I forgot I have to pick this game. The thing that stands out just from writing this preview is the number of ifs I've used. If Nolan Smith neutralizes Jeff Teague, if Scheyer gets back in rhythm, if the Blue Devils hold their own on the boards....
That's too many ifs going into a road game. And I can see Duke handling each of them. Smith may harrass Teague into turnovers that lead to transition points, Scheyer may have one of his solid if unspectacular 18-point nights and Henderson, Singler, Thomas, McClure and Zoubek may continue their outstanding work on the boards. I just don't see them all happening together. One thing will go wrong for the Blue Devils, and that's going to be the difference between winning and losing (and if I had to bet, it's going to be something as simple as Chas McFarland grabbing a key offensive rebound and putting it back plus the foul).
It will be a tight, taut, every-possession-counts kind of game. This Wake team is mature enough by this point in the season to handle that, especially at home.
THE VERDICT: Wake Forest, 78-74.
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