Will the Blue Devils exceed expectations?

Another season kicks off next week, and again, Duke is a preseason top-10 team. The formula isn't too complex: The sport's most prestigious program, the biggest coaching name in basketball and four returning starters, coupled with a strong recruiting class, usually merit that kind of respect. But is the Blue Devils' No. 8 ranking inflated? Or, more to the point, can Duke possibly live up to expectations this year, unlike the last two seasons?

This team can and will earn the respect that comes with a top-10 ranking, and the biggest reason is the departure of last year's captain, leading scorer and co-leading rebounder, DeMarcus Nelson. It sounds ridiculous to argue that losing the player head coach Mike Krzyzewski consistently called Duke's "rock" could actually constitute an improvement, but the numbers tell a different story.

Nelson-now a starter for the NBA's Golden State Warriors despite going undrafted in June-averaged 14.8 points per game, along with 5.8 rebounds and 2.5 turnovers per contest. But in the season's last five games-home against North Carolina, two ACC Tournament games and two NCAA Tournament matchups-Duke might have been better off without Nelson.

Nelson averaged just nine points and turned the ball over almost four times a game in that span. Nobody in Cameron March 8 against the Tar Heels will soon forget Nelson's disappearing act-his inability to come through when it mattered most doomed the Blue Devils in March. Had Nelson simply carried his steady play into the postseason, maybe Duke cruises past Belmont, takes care of West Virginia and sneaks past Xavier into the Elite Eight. I would have no reason to write this column.

But the fact is, the Blue Devils did fall short of the Tournament's second weekend for the second straight year, and there is reason to question whether they can live up to the hype and earn a spot among the nation's elite. Much of the pressure to do so rests on junior captain Gerald Henderson's more-than-capable shoulders.

Henderson played like an All-American at times last year, but a wrist injury slowed his progress. Still, Henderson should be the focal point of the Duke offense.Nelson's responsibilities this year fall primarily to Henderson, who is a better shooter and dribbler than Nelson. Moreover, Henderson proved himself a clutch performer against Pittsburgh and Belmont last season.

In addition, the squad's freshmen and sophomores provide some much-needed size and flair, two areas the Blue Devils sorely lacked last year. Nolan Smith has already supplanted stalwart Greg Paulus as the starting point guard, and along with the wildly athletic Elliot Williams, brings an exciting new dimension to the attack. And while Duke is still inexperienced and somewhat undersized down low, a frontcourt of Henderson, Kyle Singler and 6-foot-11 Miles Plumlee doesn't sound so bad, does it?

This year's Blue Devils can only make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament if they get key contributions from young players and their stars become truly dominant when it matters. But after watching Henderson and Co. in person almost 40 times over two years, I have faith that this team has what its predecessors lacked: a guy to give the ball to when it desperately needs a bucket.