It could be Duke is suffering a down year after losing Lindsey Harding and Alison Bales, two of its best players in recent history.
It could be Coach P, like many other head coaches with new teams, needs a couple of seasons to get her program ready to play her way.
It could be the Blue Devils were working out all the kinks in the regular season, so they'll be ready for a postseason push come tournament time.
It could be. But it's not.
Just by virtue of the still-lacking parity in women's basketball, Duke should be able to make it out of the first weekend and into the Sweet Sixteen. Once the Blue Devils have to face a top-25 team, though, expect them to fold. Although it has shown a consistent ability to beat the teams it is supposed to beat, Duke has exhibited an unswerving lack of ability to secure the big victory.
The Blue Devils have played eight games against ranked opponents, and even though all but one has been in the top-five, Duke is a Final-Four-unworthy 1-7 in those contests. In fact, the Blue Devils have barely been close, falling by an average of more than 14 points in those contests. Their one shining achievement came in a hard-fought (read: ugly) 49-44 win over No. 4 Rutgers, but that was more than three months ago.
McCallie says her team will peak come the NCAA Tournament, and, hell, she wouldn't be a good coach if she didn't believe that and try to get her players to believe that. But Duke most likely won't be able to advance out of its own conference tournament's semifinals, let alone anything else, because of a seemingly imminent matchup against No. 5 Maryland.
And if the Blue Devils did manage to pull it all together, hit their stride and get all the bounces to defeat a team that has beaten them twice this season, they would still have to get through No. 2 North Carolina, which just handed Duke its worst loss in 15 years last Saturday.
Last year's leading scorer Abby Waner seems to have lost something this season, sporting lower percentages in every statistical shooting category. The junior's presence from beyond the arc is the most noticeable decline in her game, sinking just 28 percent of her long-distance tries this season compared to 36 percent in 2006-2007.
Another difference from last season's squad is its cohesiveness and chemistry, no doubt disrupted by Harding's and Bales' departure. Duke took the floor with the same starting lineup for each of its 36 games last season, but Coach P has yet to find her favorite set of five. Ten of the Blue Devils' 12 players have appeared in the starting rotation at least once, making it hard for Duke to settle into a groove.
As if all this wasn't enough to overcome, the Blue Devils are heading into the postseason with the antithesis of momentum following the rout at the hands of the Tar Heels.
Could it happen? Theoretically, yes.
Unfortunately for this rebuilding Duke team and its ambitious first-year coach, though, it's destined for an early exit.
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