The last time a Duke team did not advance to the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, it was 1997.
Although all good things have to come to an end sometime, this year will not be the year that Duke breaks the streak.
Of course, that's not what it looks like right now. The Blue Devils-losers of their last two games heading into the ACC Tournament, winless against four of the top five teams in the ACC and owners of an 8-8 record in conference play-don't exactly look like world-beaters.
But look a little closer.
The Blue Devils have played inarguably the toughest schedule in what is arguably the toughest conference in the country. Duke's conference opponents had a combined overall winning percentage of .662-by far the best mark of any team in the conference.
Duke's full schedule was the third toughest in the country, according to kenpom.com. Their opponents' overall offensive efficiency was the nation's highest.
The Blue Devils played 10 conference games against 20-win teams and 15 games against 20-win teams overall. They played an NCAA-high 17 games against teams ranked in the RPI top-50 and won eight of them, behind only North Carolina, UCLA and Maryland.
So even though Duke has lost a bunch of games recently, it remains more battle-tested and possesses more quality wins than any team it might play in the first couple of rounds.
In addition to their tough schedule, the Blue Devils have been unlucky. While I have no idea how Ken Pomeroy was able to rank the relative luck of all 336 Division I teams (it probably has to do with the number of games they should've won based on statistics and the actual number they won), the statistical guru has Duke ranked 283rd. According to Pomeroy, the Blue Devils lack of luck has cost them 1.5 games.
And anecdotally, any Blue Devil fan can cite several instances (the Florida State game at home, the Virginia game on the road), when a couple of breaks would have allowed Duke to win the game.
So you've got a 22-win team that has played one of the toughest schedules in America and has been unlucky while doing it. They're more talented than anyone they will face in the first two rounds (don't forget Duke's six McDonald's All-Americans), and they are coached by the second-winningest active coach. Still, everyone is stumbling all over themselves in the race to write the Blue Devils off.
If you ask me, that sounds like a recipe for a lot of shaking heads and grudging praise for Coach K when Duke wins its way into the Sweet 16.
Just remember, you heard it here first.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.