After going 20-10 overall and 9-7 in the ACC last year, Florida State felt sure it would get into the NCAA Tournament.
The Seminoles had good reason to expect a bid-the last time that a team went 9-7 in the ACC and did not get in had been in 2000, when Virginia did not make the tournament despite finishing 19-12 overall. On Selection Sunday, however, Florida State was left without an invitation to the Big Dance, as the Seminoles were one of the last teams left out of the NCAAs by the selection committee.
At the beginning of this season, ACC coaches made a push to make sure that teams like Florida State would not be overlooked in favor of mid-majors come 2007's tournament. And with a losing record in a strong ACC this time around, Florida State (19-11, 7-9 in the ACC) once again sits precariously on the tournament bubble.
On Sunday, the league's coaches will find out whether their push for more NCAA bids given the difficulty and depth of the conference has paid off.
"I don't know if we've ever been deeper as a league as we are this year," ACC Commissioner John Swofford said. "All I've seen is the regular season, [but] in my opinion, I think we should get nine [bids]."
If the ACC were to garner nine bids, it would include the Seminoles and Clemson. The Tigers raced out to a fast start but closed their ACC slate with nine losses in their final 13 games.
Still, Clemson head coach Oliver Purnell believes his team should be rewarded for its seven conference wins and perfect non-conference slate.
"We're going through a very difficult marathon grinder of an ACC season," Purnell said. "I think we've definitely done enough to be in the NCAA Tournament."
The majority of college basketball experts seem in agreement now that the top seven teams in the ACC are virtually assured to make the tournament.
With at least 10 wins apiece, it can almost be guaranteed that No. 8 North Carolina, Virginia, No. 17 Maryland, Virginia Tech and Boston College will earn bids, as no team in the history of the ACC has failed to receive a bid after winning 10 league games.
No. 21 Duke is also a no-brainer for the tournament despite a .500 record in the ACC. With quality non-conference wins over ranked teams Georgetown and Indiana and the third-toughest schedule in the country, the Blue Devils appear to have enough on their resume to make it into the NCAA Tournament.
Georgia Tech (20-10, 8-8) also has the precarious position of being .500 in the ACC, but a late run that included wins over UNC and Boston College has many experts convinced that they will make the tournament.
After that, nothing seems certain.
"We've gotten some recognition, but I'm not sure people appreciate how difficult it is to go through a regular season race," Florida State head coach Leonard Hamilton said.
The two teams least assured of having their names called Sunday kick off the ACC Tournament when they play one another Thursday at noon in what is all but an elimination game for the loser.
Whether both, one, or none of the 7-9 teams make the NCAA Tournament, the conference that saw just four teams get in last year will likely see a drastically different number of teams in this year's bracket.
"Every year is a little different than the previous year," Swofford said. "All you can do is make your case and hope for the best."
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