As the clock wound down on the first game of the NCAA Tournament in Jacksonville, Fla., Wisconsin-Milwaukee held the ball just inside half-court, having already sealed an 82-74 win over Oklahoma.
A few players raised their arms, others gave high fives, but the celebration was subdued at best. This was a No. 11 seed topping a No. 6 seed. This was a team that went through the regular season unranked downing a team that had been ranked in the top five early in the season.
But the Panthers knew the truth-this was not an upset. Despite what Billy Packer may think, the gap between the BCS conferences and the mid-majors is shrinking.
Just a year ago, then-Wisconsin-Milwaukee head coach Bruce Pearl explained the predicament that the selection committee faces in picking the 34 at-large teams. He said the committee faces the challenge of rewarding mid-majors for their performances during the regular season and selecting power-conference teams that can compete with the higher seeds.
Slowly, that distinction is being erased. It's not just the five schools from non-BCS conferences that are in the Sweet Sixteen (though to be fair, only three are surprises-Wichita State, George Mason and Bradley). It's not just the eight double-digit seeds that made the second round. It's that nearly every game is competitive.
Compare this season to just six years ago. The top-seeds beat the No. 16 seeds by an average of more than 24 points per game then-this year the margin was 14.5. In 2000, there was just one 2-vs.-15 matchup decided by fewer than 10 points, while this year there were three. The closest 3-vs.-14 game in 2000 was decided by 15 points; this year, one No. 14 seed won and two others lost by just four points each.
The exodus of many players from the top programs to the NBA accounts for much of this parity, as it has had the double effect of decreasing the raw talent discrepancy as well as giving nearly every mid-major an experience advantage.
"These aren't just fly-by-night operations, they are quality schools, quality programs coached by really good people," head coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "More recognition should be given to programs than teams. Take those two coaches-[George Mason's] Jim Larranaga and [Bradley's] Jim Les-they have developed programs at those schools. They have been there long enough. They are not just trying to get the next big conference job, they have made a commitment to those schools."
Many national experts have thanked the three-pointer for the increased parity-Dickie V called it "the great equalizer." But the fact is that the mid-majors who have had success rely on the three much less than their high-major opponents.
In the second round, Wichita State attempted 15 threes, while Tennessee hoisted 29. Pittsburgh's Carl Krauser jacked up as many threes-six-as Bradley's whole team did. George Mason made a total of nine threes in its two upset wins, while its opponents hit 20.
In fact, if you look at the top 50 teams in three pointers per game, you will find only three still in the Tourney-Duke, West Virginia and Villanova.
These Cinderella teams are just solid defensive squads that force turnovers and get to the free-throw line. The three Sweet Sixteen surprises outshot their second-round opponents by a combined 80-28 from the charity stripe. And because they are not Duke, we know it's not due to a conspiracy, but rather to aggressive play and an emphasis on pounding the ball inside.
These mid-majors aren't going anywhere, even with the new NBA age limit.
And, you heard it here first, I guarantee one of these teams will make the Elite Eight.
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