As I was watching the Connecticut-Villanova game Sunday, it occurred to me to ask a question that some might find heretical. Is Duke at a disadvantage from having to play in this year's weak ACC?
Teams such as Memphis and Gonzaga have been ruled out of title contention by many national experts because they have supposedly grown accustomed to playing against inferior competition. But has the same thing happened to Duke on a smaller scale?
Barring some incredible hot streak in the ACC Tournament by a middle-tier team, the conference will probably get only four teams, including the Blue Devils, into the NCAA Tournament. The four teams would put the ACC in a tie for least among the major conferences. Of the other three tourney teams-Boston College, N.C. State and North Carolina-none have shown the consistency or talent to be considered anything other than a good team. They just do not have any quality wins outside of the conference. They are a combined 5-5 against teams from the other five power conferences, and every win has come against a team with double-digit losses.
Granted the Blue Devils played a tremendously tough non-conference schedule, but they are now three months removed from their game against Memphis, the highest ranked team Duke has played.
While teams in the Big East and Big Ten pound away at each other, Duke has fought through the majority of its ACC schedule unscathed. Certainly, Duke has been challenged in conference play-the Blue Devils have had four games decided in the last minute. Duke gets everyone's best shot, but the fact is that being tested by a team like Florida State is not the same as taking on Villanova's or West Virginia's best effort.
Duke has played one conference opponent currently ranked in the RPI top 35-the Tar Heels-while Villanova has played six and Connecticut has faced seven. Perhaps it is not fair to compare the ACC to the mega-league that is the Big East, but Villanova and Connecticut-two of the NCAA's top title contenders-have a definite advantage come tournament time because they have been battle tested against conference foes during the past month.
"To get through this league is one of the toughest walks you can have," Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun said. "I've never seen a league like this. I've never seen so many tough games as this league has provided."
Playing top opponents in the regular season raises a team's whole level of play. The 2001 Duke team wouldn't have won the championship if not for the epic regular season battles against North Carolina and Maryland, two of which were losses. The 1991 Blue Devils had to contend with a talented UNC team that torched Duke in the ACC finals.
The only other time a Duke team rolled through a weak ACC slate with an undefeated record was in 1999, and when that squad was faced with a tested opponent in the National Championship, it could not pull out the close game. And even Mike Krzyzewski will admit this squad is not the 1999 team.
"I'm not short-changing this team, but this team is not as talented as the '99 team, obviously," Krzyzewski said. "I'm surprised because I've had some really good teams, and [those teams] have lost in the ACC."
I'm not saying that Duke won't or can't win it all, it's just not often that playing in the ACC may hurt that chance.
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