As John Kerry struggles to define his candidacy, the 2004 presidential campaign is shaping up to be a close race with the economy and the situation in Iraq as the major issues, Duke professors said.
"My guess is we're at the beginning of what is going to be a pretty nasty campaign," said Richard Stubbing, professor of the practice emeritus of public policy studies.
For presidential candidates, spring is usually an important time for defining personal issues that can decide the race. A month after John Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, secured enough delegates to win the Democratic nomination, most agree he has still not yet been able to define himself.
"There are many people who support him, but many of them support him just because he's an alternative to [President George W.] Bush," said Bruce Kuniholm, professor of public policy studies. "Kerry is going to have to be very specific on the issues."
Stubbing said both Bush and Kerry will try to continue to portray each other negatively.
"They have to define the other as a bad guy and that is what they'll be doing," he said. "Bush will try to define Kerry as a Massachusetts liberal closely tied to [Sen.] Teddy Kennedy. Kerry will try to say Iraq and the fiscal crisis show that this is an incompetent crew."
Most professors noted that the war in Iraq and the economy will be the two major issues in the campaign. Michael Munger, chair of the political science department, said Bush needs to come up with a successful exit strategy in Iraq.
"The last week has been really bad," he said. "Right now, any plan would look bad because we're failing. If Bush can figure out a way to make things improve, [it'll help him a lot]."
With public perception of the U.S. occupation in Iraq becoming increasingly negative, Kuniholm believes the U.S. needs more multinational support. Without it, the U.S. may be setting itself up for failure, he said.
While events in Iraq continue to dominate the headlines, the economy may be the most important issue for voters in November.
"Bush has to have success in the economy," Kuniholm said. "If the economy is doing well in November, Bush can make the case that his economic policies are working. If not, it supports Kerry's criticism that they're not working."
Gunther Peck, associate professor of history and public policy studies, said that it's not just the economy that matters, but how many jobs are being added.
"The way economists measure the economy and the political effects may be different because of the few jobs that will be created," Peck said.
Although the American job market added 308,000 jobs in March, the largest monthly gain in almost four years, Peck said there is still a lot of anxiety among the public.
"It can't just be one month," he said. "You have to have a consistent trend [of job growth]. So far, its remarkably paltry. A lot of jobs have been lost."
Stubbing agreed that the job market is what will be most important to voters in November, as it will be the main economic issue Kerry uses to attack Bush.
Although the situation in Iraq and the economy may not look particularly bright for Bush, the president has raised $182 million for his campaign through the end of March, meeting his long-term goal and easily surpassing his previous record of $100 million, raised during the 2000 campaign. In comparison, Kerry has raised $75 million since January 2003, including $50 million this year.
"Fundraising is already a huge advantage for Bush," Munger said. "All Republicans have a huge fundraising advantage. The Democrats really shot themselves in the foot with the McCain-Feingold bill... [because] they can't raise soft money."
Another issue that has dominated the headlines recently has been the hearings of the commission investigating the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. Because the full findings may not be released until after November, the commission is unlikely to become a major issue in the election, Munger said.
"Democrats who have criticized this have a point," he said. "It's been stage managed so that it won't have an impact."
As speculation about who Kerry might pick as his running mate continues to grow, many expect him to pick someone who neutralizes his Northeast liberal reputation.
"The election will probably be decided in Midwestern states, and maybe in Pennsylvania and Florida," Stubbing said. "It wouldn't hurt Mr. Kerry to add someone who has roots in those areas."
With most current polls showing the two candidates almost dead even and the election more than six months away, professors said its too early to tell who has the lead.
"Polls right now are meaningless," Munger said. "People pay too much attention to the horse-race aspect [of the campaign]."
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