After a whirlwind week of rallies in high school gyms, coffee shop pit stops and town hall meetings, Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina wrapped up his campaign for the New Hampshire democratic presidential primary Tuesday night, finishing in a virtual tie for third place with retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark.
Edwards finished with just 12 percent of the vote, well behind Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, who garnered 39 percent to pick up his second win of the primary season. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean also topped Edwards with 26 percent of the vote after lagging behind him by 12 points in the Iowa caucuses the previous week. Clark matched Edwards' 12 percent and bested Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut's 10 percent.
Ever the optimist, Edwards said in a speech after the primary results were announced that he considered New Hampshire a victory for his campaign and pointed to next week's primaries as his real time to shine.
"Look at what we've done. This momentum is extraordinary!" Edwards shouted to a throng of supporters. "Now we're going to take this energy and this momentum that we saw in Iowa, that we have seen in New Hampshire and take it right through February third!"
Ed Turlington, general chair of Edwards for America, said because the senator had never expected a win in New Hampshire, his "strong showing" was as good, if not better, than expected.
"A few weeks before the vote he was 20 points behind Wesley Clark," Turlington said. "Also, Clark and Lieberman literally lived in New Hampshire for the past year [and] Dean and Kerry were from adjoining states. But [Edwards] still tied for third. It was a good show of strength."
The Edwards camp is now resting its hopes on the Feb. 3 primaries, specifically in Edwards' birthplace, South Carolina. Edwards has admitted he "must win" in South Carolina after banking on a victory there for months. Most experts and fellow Democrats agree.
"In his own words, he has to win in South Carolina," said Ted Benson, chair of the Durham County Democratic Party. "There's a lot of pressure on him to do well. If he doesn't win there, where is he going to win?"
Professor of Political Science John Aldrich also noted that after Kerry's pair of victories, the race in South Carolina and the other states with upcoming primaries may be tighter than Edwards once anticipated.
"Kerry is on a roll right now after doing really very well in New Hampshire, even for a guy from next door, and very well in Iowa," Aldrich said. "Plus he's had a lot of time for raising money, so he's sort of in charge [of the race], the front-runner right now."
Turlington, however, said that Edwards is the one with the capability of "winning in every region of the country," not only in the primaries but also in the general election. There is some doubt, however, about whether or not Edwards' favorability with voters--his strongpoint in the polls--can translate into electability. Aldrich said many voters rely on political experience as an indicator of electability, which could possibly hurt Edwards.
"The relative lack of long-time experience in politics and government lets him portray himself as someone who knows how it works, but not as someone who's sunk too much into the details," Aldrich noted. "But it makes it harder for him to demonstrate that he could handle foreign policy, stand up to leaders of foreign countries and get what he wants done."
Aldrich also maintained that Edwards' relative inexperience with campaigning may prove detrimental to him, as the primaries now turn from the hands-on, personal style at which Edwards excels to a more mass media, advertisement-based variety that may give wealthier candidates like Kerry an edge.
"Find some other way to get a few more million dollars, that's the biggest thing," Aldrich said when asked what advice he would offer Edwards. "That and try to figure out how to make a transition from going door-to-door and giving coffee to individual voters to being a national candidate all at once. That might be one of the ways his inexperience may hurt him, having less campaigns under his belt and being less experienced with the media."
Turlington, however, said he is not concerned with Edwards' ability to prove himself as a national, viable candidate.
"John is always good on TV in addition to being good in small group settings," Turlington said. "He's done a lot of campaigning on television, in debates and on news shows. We're now in a phase of the campaign where paid advertising certainly matters. But I think he's definitely in the national spotlight, and the more people know him the better chance he has to win."
Whether or not Edwards has the mass appeal needed to win the Democratic nomination and the presidency may soon be decided, as the nation's political eyes shift south to the Feb. 3 primaries.
"Every Democrat that has won [the presidency] since Kennedy in modern history has won the South," Turlington said. "And John can carry the South."
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.