It has been a tough few months for John Edwards in his quest to win the Democratic presidential nomination for the 2004 election.
The North Carolina U.S. senator has slipped to the middle of the pack of Democratic candidates, dropping from the top three in most polls and trailing in fundraising, leading some to question whether he will stay in the race.
The Democratic primary is now seen by many political analysts as a two-man race between Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry and former Vermont governor Howard Dean. The pair of northern Democrats hold substantial leads over the other contenders in most polls and have garnered the most media attention.
Edwards, on the other hand, has failed to distinguish himself significantly from the other candidates and is now in a battle for third place nationally with Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri and Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut.
"John Edwards has been invisible in terms of making a case for himself," said Kerry Haynie, associate professor of political science.
"His chances are slim, primarily because he's new to politics. But it is still a wide-open race."
In Iowa, site of the first Democratic caucus, Edwards is currently running fifth with the support of just 6 percent of likely caucus-goers, according to a Research 2000 poll last week. Despite the low numbers, Edwards officials remain optimistic.
"We've always said we don't expect any movement until the fall when [Edwards] spends more time here in Iowa," said Kim Ruby, a spokesperson for Edwards' Iowa Campaign Office. "Right now, certain candidates have advantages in Iowa: Gephardt has won the caucus here before, and Dean has spent more time here because he's not in office."
Edwards is fifth in New Hampshire as well, according the latest poll. The state will host the first major primary Jan. 27, 2004. In the Zogby International poll, Edwards drew 4 percent of likely voters, while Lieberman and Gephardt each received 6 percent to tie for third. Edwards was one of the first candidates to run television advertisements in the two states.
Edwards, a former trial lawyer who earned his undergraduate degree from North Carolina State University and law degree from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, is also trailing in the fundraising department. After leading all Democrats for the first three months of 2003, Edwards fell to fourth in fundraising with $4.5 million for the second quarter, which ended June 30.
In light of Edwards' dwindling numbers, the senator has been faced with questions about whether he will stay in the running. Many now believe the senator will soon drop out of the presidential race and run for another term in the Senate.
"My prediction is he'll withdraw," Haynie said. "I suspect this [campaign] is run not for victory, but to get his name out and set himself up as a candidate in the future."
Haynie added that Edwards' run for the presidency has also set the senator up as a possible vice presidential candidate on the Democratic ticket, especially if a non-Southerner captures the presidential nomination.
If Edwards decides to stay in the presidential race, North Carolina Democrat Erskine Bowles is reportedly interested in his seat. Bowles, who last year lost a race for North Carolina's other Senate seat to Elizabeth Dole, met with Edwards in July about running for the Senate, although details of the meeting were not released.
Edwards announced Monday in Iowa that he will introduce new legislation to protect the rights of American workers by holding corporations accountable for violating workers' rights and banning the permanent replacement of striking workers.
Last week, Edwards headed south to campaign in South Carolina, where the Feb. 3 primary is considered a must-win for the Southern senator. While in the state, Edwards blasted Bush for job losses, especially in the hard-hit manufacturing industry, as he continued to play his "regular people" theme.
Up next, Edwards will participate in the first of six officially sanctioned Democratic debates in Albuquerque, N.M., and will formally announce his campaign for the presidency Sept. 16 in his boyhood home of Robbins, N.C.
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