When Duke beat N.C. State Saturday, it was an important victory for the Blue Devils, but it was also part of the most telling trend in this year's ACC.
In each of the 10 times the four top teams in the conference--Wake Forest, Maryland, Duke, N.C. State--have played against each other, the home team has won.
For Duke, who has now played all six regular season games against the other three conference leaders, the margin separating the home score and the road score has remained consistent at 20. Duke lost on the road by 15 to Maryland, only to beat the Terps by five at home. The Blue Devils fell at N.C. State by nine, but won by 11 at home. Finally, Duke outscored Wake Forest by 19 at home and lost by 14 on the road. The 14-point margin, however, only emerged in double overtime-the teams tied in regulation, making the swing 19.
The 20-point swing, which probably doesn't mean much to anyone but ACC conspiracy theorists, does imply that homecourt advantage gives Duke a 20-point advantage over a road game.
Throughout the entire conference, home teams are 44-12 against in-conference opponents.
"I think the league is pretty young, and I think a lot of teams don't know how to win on the road," freshman J.J. Redick said.
Youth serves as a good partial explanation for the Blue Devils, who start two freshmen, but N.C. State has not started one all year and Maryland starts four seniors.
Even more than youth, parity has been the defining characteristic for the ACC this season. When relatively evenly matched teams play each other, one or two spurts can decide the game. And with a crowd screaming its support, it's much easier to get a run going or stop an opposing team's run.
N.C. State opened the second half of Saturday's game with a 9-0 run. Josh Powell stripped Shelden Williams and Julius Hodge converted a three-point play on the opposite end. After a missed Duke shot, Powell scored on a layup. As he waited for Duke to bring the ball back upcourt, Hodge slapped the floor in a trademark Blue Devil move. As an audacious visitor he was greeted with offended cheers of "Our house!" and the run stalled after two more baskets as the Cameron Crazies and Blue Devils on the court fed off each other to end the run. If the game were being played a short bit down I-40, however, the crowd reaction would have been very different.
"When we're away we know the crowd is hollering and getting excited and when that picks up, it gets you down," freshman Sean Dockery said. "The Cameron Crazies were a big part of this game."
The result of all the parity and the dominance of the home teams in the ACC this year is massive confusion about ranking the teams. Saturday, Duke fans chanted "N-I-T... NIT!" in parody of the Wolfpack's cheer, and because of some of the terrible losses N.C. State has suffered out of conference (see: Massachusetts, Temple and Boston College in Raleigh) they're probably right. But after two games head-to-head, it's very hard to say whether the likely NIT-bound Wolfpack or the No. 8 Blue Devils is the better team.
And that's the way it is in the ACC this year. Is Duke better than Maryland? Hard to say. Is Duke better than Wake Forest? Is Wake better than Maryland (23-point home victor and 9-point road loser)?
Since Duke, Wake and Maryland are done playing each other for the regular season, the picture is not likely to clear up much in the next two weeks. So it will all come down to the ACC Tournament.
Depending on whether the games more closely resemble road or home games, any of eight teams could win it. Realistically, any of the top four teams have a very good shot at winning.
It makes you really love the ACC.
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