The NBA draft isn't what it used to be. Just ask Mike Dunleavy and the Golden State Warriors.
Gone are the days when a team with a top five pick can hope it will choose a player that will immediately change its fortunes: Wilt Chamberlain's MVP winning rookie season where he averaged 37.6 points per game; Larry Bird's All-NBA first team first season where his addition added 32 wins to the Celtics; Michael Jordan's 28.2 points per game as a rookie where he instantly added marketability to the lowly Chicago Bulls. These are things of the past. Tim Duncan's All-NBA first team first season with the San Antonio Spurs in the 1997-98 season seemed to be the last of a dying breed. Players declare for the NBA draft much earlier in their talent arcs these days, and teams select players based on potential more than a player's current ability.
The first three or so years in a player's NBA career is now a developmental period, years that used to be spent in college. The theory of the past stated that players would best improve in college where they would get plenty of game experience, while declaring too early for the draft would hinder improvement by spending much needed game experience on the bench watching veterans play. Unfortunately for purist, this theory has proved false after Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady all earned All-NBA accolades after never playing in college, and spending much of their rookie seasons on the bench. As the logic works for the players, why develop your game in the amateur college setting instead of getting paid millions of dollars to do the same in the NBA? To amateur stars uninterested in academics, the decision to go to the pros is what intellectuals call the players: a no-brainer.
But when the Golden State Warriors selected former Duke guard Mike Dunleavy with the third pick in last year's NBA draft, they felt they were getting something from the old school. Although he had forgone his senior season in college, Dunleavy was a former NBA coach's son who had much of the basketball smarts that most of the other players in the draft would take years to develop. Dunleavy would not need to use his first few seasons to develop into a competitive player. Instead, he would be able to help the Warriors - who had a 21-61 record in the 2001-02 season - immediately.
But something went terribly wrong in the Warriors evaluation of Dunleavy, as he is averaging only 4.7 points per game in 14.3 minutes of playing time, even while the Warriors are making a run at the playoffs mostly because of Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas and Jason Richardson. So what exactly is Dunleavy's problem in a league that he was supposedly born to star in?
Dunleavy's most sought after attribute, which once made scouts salivate while he was in college, has not proven to be a strength, but a weakness. At 6-foot-9, scouts and analysts were mesmerized how well Dunleavy could play the guard position. They pictured him as being able to effortlessly get off his picture-perfect jump shot for a dominating, lengthy all-star career.
Dunleavy's problem thus far is that he has played guard, but forgotten that he is 6-foot-9. The connotation of a 6-foot-9 guard is that the player can post-up the more normal sized perimeter players. While Dunleavy was wowing scouts with his perimeter play in college, he forgot to develop the skills that are required for any player his size in the NBA. Dunleavy has no drop-step, no up-and-under, no jump-hook or any other move with his back to the basket. Without a an interior game, Dunleavy is not a 6-foot-9 guard - he is just a guard.
The strength of being 6-foot-9 has also revealed another weakness: he's slow. Dunleavy was able to get away with a lack of quickness in college by being able to use his long arms to deflect passes and shots. In the NBA, players are even quicker and bigger than in college, so the separation in quickness has become a more noticeable weakness for the former Duke player and the difference in height has become a smaller strength. Shorter, quicker guards are dominating Dunleavy currently, and the defensive-minded NBA is noticing, as Dunleavy was not selected for the rookie all-star team.
Dunleavy's lack of speed has hurt his offensive game as well. Unable to break players off the dribble with quick moves, Dunleavy's scoring thus far has been limited to only wide-open jump shots. If a player gets any type of pressure on him, he is unable to get off his shot because of his slow release. Despite being projected as an offensive power-house in the NBA, Dunleavy has been an offensive liability for the Warriors.
The Warriors' pick continues to look worse and worse as one looks to those picked after Dunleavy. With the ninth selection, the Phoenix Suns selected high school player Amare Stoudemire. Although Stoudemire did not begin playing basketball until he was 12 and played in only 2 full season of high school basketball after attending 6 schools because of academic reasons and coaching changes. He has taken the NBA by storm, though, averaging 12.9 points per game and 9.2 rebounds. The Warriors surely selected Dunleavy instead because they thought he could understand complex NBA offenses much better, but it is Stoudemire who is using his strengths to his advantage. Stoudemire does not possesses great ball handling or shooting skills, but he knows what he can do - excel at playing physically inside - and is doing it. Meanwhile, Dunleavy supposedly knows everything, yet is doing nothing.
The writing was on the wall for this development back when Dunleavy was in college, but everyone missed it. Every time he was matched up with an athletic post player, most notably Maryland's Chris Wilcox, he was dominated into near submission. Now that he is competing against players who all have the strengths to counter Dunleavy's once-hidden weaknesses, mismatches occur nearly every time he steps on the court.
But to completely give up on Dunleavy now would also be a terrible mistake. Dunleavy is a smart 22-year-old who has plenty of time to continue to develop his game. Numerous players have unexpectedly struggled at the outset of their careers - most notably Gary Payton, who averaged only 7.2 points as a rookie after being named Sports Illustrated's College Player of the year in 1990 - before going on to achieve great success later in their careers. Maybe the smarts scouts felt Dunleavy displayed on the court were just part of the savvy Dunleavy had in tricking the NBA to pay him millions of dollars to develop his skills, just like everyone else.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.