In the U.S. Senate race, James Carville's famous 1992 maxim apparently still holds true.
It's the economy, stupid.
Both major-party candidates, Democrat Erskine Bowles and Republican Elizabeth Dole are volleying to take the upper ground on a variety of economic issuesâ_"including tax reform and President George W. Bush's economic record, North Carolina manufacturing job protection, state business growth and agricultural policy.
George Rabinowitz, professor of political science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, characterized the race as a typical Republican-versus-Democrat battle.
"Dole is like the classic Republican. She looks undifferentiated from Bush in any way," he said. "Bowles is close to a classic Democrat, though more hostile toward free trade."
Rabinowitz said the candidates differ most pointedly on taxes. Dole, who favors cutting taxes in order to spur growth and create more jobs, supports Bush's economic stimulus proposal, which calls for both corporate tax cuts and direct unemployment aid.
Bowles criticized the plan for being too heavily weighted toward corporate America and neglecting to provide funds for job training and recovery for communities hurt by foreign trade. In contrast, Bowles has proposed that Congress wait to cut taxes and instead, should reduce spending.
"People are not holding [Bush] terribly favorably at the moment and that would work in favor of Bowles," Rabinowitz said.
He added that even though Dole's platform and the Bush administration's economic plan are very similar, the state's conservative-leaning stance will give Dole political cover.
"I think [economic issues] are being used to influence marginal votersâ_"people who are worried about their jobs," Rabinowitz said.
Far more important to unemployed workers may be another hot-button issueâ_"the decrease of jobs in traditional manufacturing sectors such as textiles. Since the North American Free Trade Agreement was passed in 1994 and the World Trade Organization was created in 1998, manufacturers have found cheaper labor outside of the United States, thus contributing to job losses throughout the country. North Carolina, however, leads the nation in manufacturing job losses, a fact not lost on either Bowles or Dole.
Both candidates have called for enforcing current trade agreements more strictly. Bowles, for example, has noted in his campaign that the United States should crack down on China's alleged smuggling of goods through Mexico to circumvent higher protective tariffs.
Bowles, however, has emerged as a harsh critic of fast-track legislation, which would allow the president trade promotion authority. Dole, however, supports the measure, arguing that the policy attracts more countries to negotiate trade deals, and has accused Bowles of flip-flopping on fast-track, which he supported as chief of staff on former president Bill Clinton's administration.
Both candidates have called for statewide infrastructure investment. Bowles' plan calls for building new roads throughout eastern North Carolina that will facilitate travel and attract more business.
Dole has highlighted support for small businesses as well and has pledged to help displaced workers find jobs in the high-tech sector through community college tuition grants.
But statewide, the candidates are most aggressively posturing to claim the mantle of protecting the state's top industryâ_"agriculture, which has taken a hit from this year's drought. Both Bowles and Dole promise they can negotiate a tobacco buyout in Congress, which could generate between $5 and $6 billion for farmers.
The candidates' plans would end the tobacco quota program that has existed for over 70 yearsâ_"farmers must buy or rent quotas to grow tobacco. The buyout would provide $8 per pound to quota owners and $4 per pound to growers, allowing farmers the capital to invest in other crops.
"The rural communities of North Carolina desperately need the infusion of money that the [tobacco buyout] would bring," Dole said.
"Our farmers have been crying out for help for a long time, and it's high time that Congress responded by passing my plan now."
Although Dole's plan has been endorsed by many farm groups, including the North Carolina Farm Bureau and the North Carolina Tobacco Growers Association, Bowles has made the issue one of his top goals.
"I don't think [passing a buyout] will take long," Bowles said. "It is my number one priority."
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