Maybe students no longer want to be in school for another four grueling years after college. Maybe organic chemistry is simply too torturous. Whatever the reason, the number of students applying to medical school nationwide has steadily dropped over the past five years.
For the 2001-2002 school year, the country's 125 medical schools received 6 percent fewer applications than the previous year, and 25.8 percent fewer than in 1996, when a record 46,968 people applied.
The trend can be seen among Duke undergraduates as well. Last year, 144 seniors applied to medical school, compared to 170 in 1998. Among Duke alumni, 167 applied last year versus 202 in 1998.
"The trend usually follows the economy," said Brenda Armstrong, associate dean for admissions at the School of Medicine. "A robust economy makes opportunities to begin careers a lot easier and a lot faster. People will opt to do other things besides practice medicine, especially with the emergence of fields like the dot-com industry," she said.
Senior Vinay Kumar completed his medical school requirements, but is planning to be an analyst with Goldman Sachs next year. "Doctors themselves tried to dissuade me. [They found] no fulfillment from their jobs because of the bureacracy that has crept in," he said.
If the economic decline continues, that trend may change, as officials say applications tend to rise during weak financial times. "[Students] perceive medical school training as a marketable skill," said Kay Singer, associate dean of Trinity College and director of the Health Professions Advising Center.
Still, officials say there are other factors at play when considering the drop in applications. They cite the growing debt burdens of medical school graduates and the perception that the managed care system creates headaches for physicians through paperwork and restrictions.
In a 1999 study by the American Medical Association, officials speculated that the corporate transformation of health care may be changing physicians' concepts of patient attention from one of personal responsibility to one of a compulsion to make money for their employers.
Another recent trend is an increase in the number of students who delay medical school application for one or more years after graduation. Students are deciding to take a "gap year" in which they pursue other interests before applying.
"[It] seems to be healthy to me," Singer said. "Students do something worthwhile with this year that enhances their applications, and they seem more committed when they come back."
Contrary to the national trend, applications to the School of Medicine have remained relatively steady over the past three years. Despite minor fluctuations from year to year, there have not been significant changes in the number of applicants, which averages about 5,000.
The number of people Duke accepts to its medical school is based on the size of the class and the quality of people in the applicant pool. "That quality remains very high," Armstrong said.
Although the exact figure has not yet been determined, Singer estimated that the number of Duke seniors applying for the 2002-2003 year will not reach last year's pool of 144. However, she predicts that number will rise in subsequent years as the economy weakens.
She cited students' experience with people who are ill as the most important factor in determining whether or not they want to pursue a medical career. "They need to have done something to be in a position to work with sick people," she said. "To take responsibility for the lives of other people is something that is hard to practice."
Jennifer Song contributed to this story.
Get The Chronicle straight to your inbox
Signup for our weekly newsletter. Cancel at any time.