If they face the same Florida team Illinois did, the Blue Devils might see their season end in Syracuse after tonight's Sweet 16 game.
The fourth-seeded Illini, who took Duke to the wire in November and reached the finals of the Big 10 tourney, saw a running and pressing squad that played nine men at least 15 minutes in Sunday's second-round matchup. They lost to a team that scored 53 second-half points Sunday, shooting 54 percent and forcing nine turnovers.
But if they face the same Florida team Butler did, the Blue Devils should waltz into their third straight Elite Eight.
The 12th-seeded Bulldogs took on a team that needed two missed free throws and an off-balance, buzzer-beating shot to prevent what would've been the biggest upset of the first round.
When AP voters ranked the Gators seventh in the preseason, they likely envisioned the team that dispatched Illinois by 17 points Sunday. But enough performances like the one against Butler dropped Florida to the fifth seed in the East Region. The Gators lost two of their last three regular-season games and went 4-6 against ranked teams.
"[Duke is] probably the hardest team we have to go against," coach Billy Donovan said. "This is a challenge. We've got to do a good job executing what we do well. If we don't, they'll exploit the press. If we do a good job, I think we can have a chance to wear them down and get the game going up and down the floor and play in transition quite a bit."
Two straight top-five recruiting classes give Donovan a lot of talent-and a young team
Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski didn't deny that he and his not-so-deep team are thankful to have four days to prepare for Florida. They gave Duke's players time to recover: Mike Dunleavy from mono, Matt Christensen from a concussion and its starters from each playing at least 32 minutes against Kansas Sunday.
"We'll be fresher," he said. "We'll have a little bit more time to prepare for their style-it's a little bit different. I would rather play Florida in the first [game of the weekend]. It was difficult for Illinois to come back two days later against them."
Monday, Krzyzewski and his three captains all stressed the same strategy for beating the Gators' press-attack, attack, attack. The Blue Devils think they can get open looks, but after shooting 37 percent against the Jayhawks, the question is whether they can make them.
Krzyzewski reminded the doubters that his team led the nation in scoring. Teams need to be able to shoot on the run against Florida's press, he said, and the Blue Devils have been doing that all season.
Shane Battier could burn the Gators with one of his signature shots, a straightaway three-pointer on the secondary break.
"It's my favorite shot," he said. "I think it's a shot people don't regularly see. It's a shot you can really stick it to the other team with if their guard is down."
Duke could also use a strong showing from Jason Williams, who shot 2-of-15 and committed eight turnovers Sunday.
"I thought he took good shots," Krzyzewski said. "I want him to take those shots. And we need him to make them against Florida if we want to advance."
But the coach would like to see Williams' perimeter defense improve. Otherwise, Gator guards Teddy Dupay and Brett Nelson could repeat their performance against the Illini, when they went a combined 8-for-10 on three-pointers.
But Florida didn't join the Blue Devils among the nation's highest-scoring teams on long-range bombs alone. Balance is the name of the game for the Gators, who score in the paint, outside the arc and everywhere in between.
Udonis Haslem can pound inside, Donnell Harvey can slash through defenses, Kenyan Weaks can score in bunches. And utlraversatile sophomore Mike Miller, Florida's leading scorer and rebounder, can do it all.
"He's a tough matchup at 6-7, 6-8," Krzyzewski said. "He can play inside and outside and can penetrate well. He's one of the real talents in the country."
The best way to stop the Gators' high-scoring offense is to beat their havoc-wreaking defense. And that's what Duke and its high-scoring offense intend to do.
"Most teams, if you attack their press well, they'll get out of it," Nate James said. "We're going to keep doing what we do; they're going to keep doing what they do. And it's going to go one way or the other."
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