Professor explores U.S.-China relations

Trouble may be brewing in the near future for U.S.-China relations, warned Harry Harding, Dean of George Washington University's Elliot School of International Affairs at a speech Friday.

Harding discussed the turbulent state of affairs between Washington and Beijing to an audience of about 40 students and faculty. In his speech, sponsored by the Asian/Pacific Studies Institute and Program in Asian Security Studies, Harding stressed that despite recent progress made between the United States and China since 1995, China's trade surplus and growing military capabilities could spark conflict in the coming months.

"Bilateral trade issues, combined with human rights and security issues, will emerge and ignite passions against China in the U.S.," warned Harding.

The threat of China's military capabilities is especially acute in the Taiwan Strait, where the issue of independence for Taiwan is a sensitive topic for both the United States and China. Harding said an arms race, reminiscent of the Cold War, is possible if the Chinese continue to increase military spending. "Everyone else is building down as China continues to build up," Harding said.

In addition to nuclear conflict, a trade war is also possible if China's surplus continues to grow and the country remains outside the World Trade Organization, Harding said. When Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongiji visits the U.S. in April, Washington will push for the country to join the trade organization, he said.

Despite these problems, Harding acknowledged that Chinese-U.S. interests have been "converging, not diverging." For example, China has been more active on human rights issues and has acknowledged the United States' influence in the Asian balance of power. Harding cautioned, however, that "mutual suspicions, and mistrust," could sever these delicate ties.