The buzzword surrounding the Atlantic Coast Conference this season has been parity, and with all nine teams looking to find a way into postseason play, this year's ACC Tournament means much more than a conference title to its participants. Some teams are looking to improve their seeds in the NCAA draw, others are just trying to get a shot at competing for the national title and still others are hoping to scrap their way into the NIT. So, without further ado, here is what the ACC Tournament means for each team and its postseason hopes.
Definitely dancing
According to ACC Assistant Commissioner Tom Mickle, the ACC has a good shot at getting five or six teams into this year's NCAAs. However, says Mickle, "you never can tell. I thought Georgia Tech would have gotten in last year, and they didn't."
This year, the Yellow Jackets will have no trouble making it to the postseason. Georgia Tech (20-10, 13-3 in the ACC) finished first in this year's regular season ACC standings, and it is the hottest team in the conference, having won its last seven games. Despite midseason losses to Mount St. Mary's, Bradley and Santa Clara, Georgia Tech will be no lower than a No. 4 seed in this year's NCAA bracket. An ACC Tournament championship could catapult Tech into a No. 2 slot, but don't count on it. Ten losses are simply too many to nab the second spot in a regional this year.
A team that could grab a No. 2 seed is Wake Forest (20-5, 12-4), which boasts the best overall record in the conference and also has Player of the Year candidate Tim Duncan to lead the way. Last year, the Demon Deacons tore through the ACC Tournament behind Randolph Childress' record-setting scoring performance. If Wake could duplicate this feat with a similar showing from Duncan, it could slide in at No. 2 in a region. Otherwise, expect to see the Demon Deacons as a No. 3 seed somewhere.
The three seed in the ACC, North Carolina (20-9, 10-6), is the team which has the most to prove in this year's tournament. After an overachieving start, the Tar Heels have faltered recently, going 5-5 in their last 10 games. Their recent win over Duke helps, but a poor outing in the ACC Tournament could knock the Tar Heels down to as low as an eighth seed. Look at Carolina this way: with each win in the tournament, the Tar Heels will move up another spot in the NCAAs.
Duke fans can finally breathe a sigh of relief. After hearing for weeks that the Blue Devils were in danger of missing the NCAAs for the second straight year, Duke (18-11, 8-8) rattled off five wins in its last six games, including a convincing 85-66 victory over UCLA.
"It would amaze me if they didn't get in," Mickle said.
Duke is now looking to convince the NCAA Tournament committee that it is worthy of a five or six seed with a strong performance in the ACCs.
"We're playing our best basketball at the end of the year," head coach Mike Krzyzewski said.
This is true, and that is very important when seeds are given out. Unfortunately, the Blue Devils will probably be without senior co-captain Chris Collins, who has been the hottest player in the conference, for the ACC Tournament. Collins' loss will be a serious blow to Duke's chances of winning more than one game in the ACCs, and that will prevent the Blue Devils from getting a five seed. Expect Duke to be either a six or seven seed in this year's NCAA Tournament.
On the bubble
Clemson and Maryland are strange bedfellows on this year's NCAA Tournament bubble. Unfortunately, it appears that only one of the two of them will be getting an invitation to play for the national title. In the last week, several small-conference teams with outstanding records have fallen in their conference tournaments. This has forced the NCAA to consider teams such as Wisconsin-Green Bay for at-large bids. This means that the ACC will probably be able to place only five teams into the NCAAs.
In the preseason, Maryland (16-11, 8-8) was chosen by many to win this year's ACC regular-season title. An 0-3 start in conference play this season prevented that from happening. But the Terrapins bounced back by going 10-5 over the second half of their season, and that will bode well for them when the NCAA selection committee decides whether to let them in. Furthermore, Maryland played one of the toughest schedules in the country this year, going up against Massachusetts, Kentucky and UCLA before conference play began.
"There's no question that Maryland should be in the NCAA tournament," said Florida State coach Pat Kennedy.
He's right, regardless of how the Terrapins do in the ACCs. Maryland will play in a No. 8 vs. No. 9 game somewhere.
Clemson (17-9, 7-9), on the other hand, will have to get to the ACC finals to get to the big dance. The Tigers started the season by winning their first 11 games. Unfortunately, those wins included victories over Winthrop, Charleston Southern and Campbell.
"I hope they take the 34 best teams outside of the conference champions," Mickle said. "If they do that, Clemson can get in. Unfortunately, they don't always do that."
The tournament committee will not look favorably upon a team with nine losses and a weak schedule. Clemson will represent the ACC in this year's NIT.
A wing and a prayer
The teams in the lower echelon of the tournament standings can be proud that they kept almost every game exciting in the ACC this year. Unfortunately, all three of these teams will need to make an outstanding run to see postseason play of any kind.
Virginia (12-14, 6-10) had the kind of season many expected them to have-mediocre. The highlight of the Cavaliers' year was a late-season win over Wake Forest by 18 points. That won't be enough to get a team with a sub-.500 record into the postseason. Likewise, Florida State (13-13, 5-11) needs at least two wins to even be considered for the NIT. With a second-round game against Georgia Tech, which beat the Seminoles by an average of 18 points this year, that seems unlikely.
Cameron Crazies everywhere can empathize with the plight of Les Robinson and N.C. State (14-15, 3-13). The Wolfpack lost 10 of its 13 ACC defeats by five points or less, making it the Duke of this year. If there was any justice in the world, N.C. State would win this year's ACC Tournament and win a bid to the NCAAs. Yet Duke fans from last year know that there isn't any justice in this world. N.C. State may win the play-in game, but it will not win the whole tournament.
It is important to remember that the committee never gets it exactly right. There are always teams that deserve to get in that don't, and there are always teams that shouldn't be playing in March playing in some first-round game somewhere. Despite the somewhat muddled ACC standings this year, expect the NCAA to avoid any major controversy and let five teams in. Of course, the underdogs know what is at stake, so expect almost every game to be a thrill.
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