All Eyes on Edwards

It was the Sunday after the 2000 Republican National Convention. In Senator John Edwards' Washington office, Gore campaign officials were tearing through file cabinets, inspecting every scrap of paper.

Edwards had made it as one of the names on presidential nominee Al Gore's short, short list of running mates. The vetting process, which began in the spring after Gore shored up his party's nomination, had been long and exhaustive.

After a promising meeting two days earlier with Gore campaign chair Bill Daley, news outlets were reporting that Edwards remained one of three candidates still in the running, along with two other senators, one of whom, John Kerry, D-Mass., was reportedly fading fast. Also according to news reports, senior Gore advisor Bob Shrum's wife and Edwards' wife of 25 years, Elizabeth, went shopping together for convention outfits.

In the days leading up to the choice for a vice-presidential nominee, the Washington rumor mill, which already operates at the light-speed of a 24-hour news cycle, hit overdrive. The upcoming decision afforded the campaign heightened media scrutiny. When a presidential candidate picks someone exciting, it can send his campaign into a burst of momentum.

That's why, when Gore chose Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn., the first Jewish candidate on a major party ticket, he instantly brought a lagging campaign even with George W. Bush.

Now it is Edwards, who was left in the shadows for the remainder of 2000, who may yet have the last laugh.

Buzz

After every election, sometime before the mid-term congress-ional elections, people begin speculating about presidential candidates for the next cycle. This time, Edwards has made the list, and he's now getting more buzz than Lieberman in the press.

And while the Stevenson-Kefauver ticket failed to catch fire that year, the youthful senator from Massachusetts did not. And in 1960, he was very well positioned for the nomination.

Others, however, are not so convinced Edwards can be a modern-day Kennedy.

"It's a long shot for [Edwards], a real long shot," says North Carolina Republican Party Chair Bill Cobey. "He doesn't have Joe Kennedy as a father, either."

Emergence

A quick look at Edwards might explain all the talk. He's young, he's impassioned and he's got a down-home grin and a genteel tone of voice. He's also the sexiest politician in America, according to People Magazine.

Just as Bill Clinton had Hope, Ark., and Bob Dole had Russell, Kan., Edwards has the mandatory Mayberry-esque hometown--Robbins, N.C.--and he too comes from a blue-collar background. Edwards has also worked his way up the ladder, producing an American dream story to go along with his origins. Receiving his undergraduate degree from North Carolina State University, he attended law school at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and then was a successful trial lawyer, defending victims all over the state.

In those years, Edwards also amassed a small fortune; he spent $6 million of it in 1998, en route to his current Senate seat. That wealth will come in handy if he hopes to jump-start a presidential campaign--only Kerry, whose wife Teresa Heinz is heir to a fortune, has more personal resources.

And almost as if he's beginning to campaign, Edwards has visited Iowa, has plans to visit New Hampshire, and he and fellow senator John McCain have co-sponsored the Bipartisan Patient Protection Act. McCain, who may be on the ballot as well in 2004, jokes about his co-sponsor's presidential aspirations, and has acknowledged Edwards as "Kennedy-esque."

But whenever the man himself is asked about 2004, Edwards smiles and in his "aw-shucks" North Carolina accent, brushes off such topics, just as he did during a trip to Drake Law School in Iowa last March. Today, he is still as tight-lipped about his future.

"A lot of people have said a lot of awfully nice things about me," Edwards wrote in an e-mail. "Right now, I am focused on doing the job I already have. I'm trying to be the best senator I can for the people of North Carolina."

Aides acknowledge to budding supporters, however, that things are being put into place. Can there really be a southern Democrat with a moderate-to-liberal sheen in the 2004 White House?

It's happened before. A list of the Democratic Party's White House residents over the past 40 years tips in Edwards favor: Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Clinton. And while Edwards still has a long way to go before he can even begin to daydream about 51-gun salutes and "Hail to the Chief," he might still be the most attractive candidate in the field.

"He's got a young baby, an attractive wife, and he's got his own hair and teeth," says Ted Arrington, a political science professor at UNC-Charlotte. In 2004, the Democrats "will want someone who's articulate and will look good in comparison to President George W. Bush. Someone quick on his feet and well-spoken might be a good contrast."

In the next presidential race, the Democratic Party won't be going up against an ideological giant like former president Ronald Reagan or even a political veteran like President Bush's father.

Instead, they'll be facing a Republican Party that gained the White House only after a hotly contested election, an embittered battle that left some arguing over who the real winner was. And, with Senator James Jeffords, I-Vt., leaving his Republican roots and giving control of the Senate to Democrats, 2004's race may not be quite the nail-biter last year's was.

Experts agree it's way too early to speculate on Bush's survival, let alone any particular Democratic candidate's chances, especially while Gore remains a very distinct possibility. It's clear, however, that the Democrats need a strong, articulate leader now, and while Clinton was too slick and Gore too stiff, Edwards may strike a balance.

Clinton reportedly gave Edwards some tips for his political future. "The whole reason I wanted to talk to President Clinton was to hear his views on fiscal policy in the context of the debate over the budget and tax cuts. He is very knowledgeable and skillful on budget and tax issues," says Edwards of the conversation, before adding, "I think he's a personable guy who's made some serious mistakes."

Still, the Edwards buzz is not entirely based on his own skill. Arrington explained that within the media, reporters talk to other reporters about possible candidates in future races. New names such as Edwards elicit a lot of interest, more so than longtime party leaders like Dick Gephardt or Kerry.

"There's this guy Edwards. Their ears perk up. So someone does a story... and another one writes a story. It's a buzz," Arrington says. "Once it starts, they ask Edwards to appear on those Sunday morning talk shows. It all feeds on itself."

That means the Edwards bubble can burst just as quickly as it inflated.

Also, in a world where yesterday's news seems light-years away, there is a danger that the media will turn a more negative than inquisitive lens on the rising North Carolina star. "He's done everything right, but he's almost done it too early," Sabato says. "He's too hot too early. These trial balloons crash and burn when they fly too close to the sun."

Takeoff

Edwards has not wasted any time asserting himself in the current leadership vacuum within the Democratic Party. He's been one of the Bush administration's most vocal critics; political commentator Tim Russert frequently invites him as a guest on NBC's Meet the Press.

He was chosen by Daschle to be present during the depositions throughout the Senate impeachment trial. Daschle also suggested Edwards last year as a go-between with John McCain and Sen. Ted Kennedy, D-Mass., on the Democrats' version of the patients' bill of rights legislation.

"He did such a good job, he ended up with his name on the bill," Arrington says. "People in the Senate like him and respect him."

When the Edwards-McCain-Kennedy bill passed the Senate 59-36 late last month, it put the Bush administration on the defensive as the president threatened to veto an immensely popular piece of legislation.

Edwards' victory pushed the administration, already beleaguered by its tax and energy policies, further to the right, while Edwards remained basking in the glow of a populist, moderate triumph alongside McCain.

That may be the greatest myth about Edwards--his moderation. Edwards, who gets high marks from the AFL-CIO and other liberal interest groups and consistently low ratings from conservative groups, looks surprisingly moderate for the record he has assembled.

Voting against tax cuts might be risque for a Southern Democrat, but voting against the Boy Scouts is near-suicide.

Yet somehow, Edwards doesn't look, doesn't sound and doesn't seem extreme. "I would say he's a moderate-liberal," Sabato says. "He's about as liberal as you get in the South."

That leaves plenty of glee for Cobey, who hopes that the Republicans can knock Edwards out of his Senate seat in 2004. He says there is a peril for Edwards if he tries to lurch leftward for a presidential primary run.

Edwards' Senate seat--a seat which has not been held for two consecutive terms since Sam Ervin retired in 1974--is up in 2004. Jim Broyhill, Lauch Faircloth and even former governor and Duke University President Terry Sanford could not hold it.

And of course, just as Lieberman did in Connecticut, Edwards can run both on the national ticket and for the Senate in 2004. Nevertheless, Cobey said he understands why Edwards has become a hot commodity.

"The Democrats are toiling around for potential candidates for the future to run for president," he said. "They've identified him as someone who they think has got a future. He comes from one of what's become one of their big constituencies: liberal trial lawyers."

Cobey and Sabato both say, however, that Edwards' past career will haunt him in a general election. "Being a trial lawyer is always a problem," Sabato says.

"Other than used-car salesman and congressman, I can't think of professions rated lower than trial lawyer, also called ambulance chasers."

Cobey, whose party has lately declared war on John Edwards with a series of press releases targeting the patients' bill of rights debate, also warns that should Edwards win the presidential nomination, he would have a hard time winning his home state in a primary.

"Why would he run all over the country and take time away from other things he's interested in if he weren't hotly pursuing the presidency? I think it's pretty obvious," he says.

Sabato also believes Edwards will have difficulty carrying the Tar Heel State.

"How do you know he can carry his own state? I've heard a lot of Democratic consultants question whether Edwards can really win North Carolina in a general election."

And despite all the buzz, everyone, including Edwards, will have to wait on Gore, who has kept a low profile throughout 2001. Sabato points out that Gore might reemerge soon.

"I've been told that he's going to become much more visible in September and begin dropping hints by the end of the year."

The race for the Democratic nomination in 2004 is just beginning.