Last year, David Cutcliffe never let his team forget November would define its season, despite a 3-1 start.
As it turns out, that Duke team won only one more contest—a 10-7 struggle over Vanderbilt—en route to finishing 4-8. By Cutcliffe’s measure, the 2008 squad started well and beat inferior opponents, but could not finish and faltered against stronger foes. The way they collapsed was reminiscent of the pre-Cutcliffe era.
But this season, the second-year head coach has a chance to put his stamp on the team with a strong November finish that would legitimize the Blue Devils as a full-season team, not just a team that peaked in late September.
So far, what we know about Duke is what we expected—Thaddeus Lewis is really, really good; the offensive line needs to mask its deficiencies; and the defense, while noticeably missing former All-American Michael Tauiliili, is still capable of performing at a high level when needed, as evidenced by its second-half shutout of N.C. State.
But what we don’t know is whether or not another November swoon is coming. In many ways, the start to this year mirrors last year’s fast start—solid out-of-conference wins against a beatable military school (Navy and Army), a surprisingly smooth victory over an ACC opponent (Virginia and N.C. State) and a defeat at the hands of a ranked opponent (Georgia Tech and Kansas). So I can’t blame you if you expect Duke to finish below .500 again.
However, as I predicted in the preseason, this is still a bowl-worthy team, and here are a few reasons why:
1. The schedule. Last year, Duke closed with three strong teams in the ACC (Wake Forest, North Carolina and Virginia Tech) and also ran into two teams beginning to heat up (N.C. State and Clemson). Conversely, this year, Duke faces winnable games against four conference opponents currently on a downswing.
Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and Wake Forest are performing below expectations or never had any expectations to begin with. There’s no reason to think Duke can suddenly beat two top-15 teams in Georgia Tech and Miami, but if the Blue Devils can stuff the four weak conference foes while they’re down, they could be playing in December.
2. Conditioning. This wasn’t as bad a factor last year as it was under Ted Roof. But losing seven of your last eight games—three late in the fourth quarter—signifies some sort of fatigue late in the season, even if it was just mental exhaustion. Just as rookies in the NFL hit a wall at a certain point, so too did this team under its first-year head coach.
Having had a full calendar year and knowing what to expect from Cutcliffe means this team isn’t going to falter because of weariness when it plays the Demon Deacons with a bowl bid on the line. Lewis said over the summer the team actually demanded conditioning drills beyond what Cutcliffe gave them, and if there was ever a time that those would pay off, it’s over the last six weeks of the season.
3. Mistake-free offense. Through six games, Duke has just six turnovers. The opponents have 10, and any coach at any level will tell you if you win the turnover battle, you’re almost certain to win the ball game.
Mistakes cost the Blue Devils dearly last year against Virginia Tech and North Carolina, but now Lewis is playing at an unreal level, having thrown for 1,601 yards and 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions, both in the Kansas loss. Don’t turn the ball over and the wins come—pretty simple stuff.
4. Leadership. I doubt anyone can rise up to the singular inspiration that Tauiliili provided last season, but this squad more than makes up for it with quantity. Lewis, Vince Oghobaase, Vincent Rey and all the other seniors have experienced Duke at its worst and know how bad it was.
They have also tasted success, but not yet had a full portion of it. They are hungry for postseason play and aren’t going to stop at anything to go out with the Blue Devils’ first bowl game in 15 years.
You can list several other reasons why Duke could be a bowl team, but these are by far the most salient. All Duke needs, then, is to continue doing what it has done well and not let any one winnable game slip away.
November is approaching. It’s time for the Blue Devils to define who they are this season.