In an NBA lockout, everything changes. Coaches can’t communicate with players. Players can’t work out at team facilities. No deals are struck, and no one is paid a salary.
In short, a lockout makes the world the NBA has created come screeching to a halt.
This year, time off for the pro game seems more and more inevitable, with the only question being how long the break will last. The NBA-bound Blue Devils have become forced to confront the possibility of an extended time with no basketball—and for the graduating seniors, it’s a helpless feeling.
“If it happens, it happens,” Nolan Smith said. “It’s going to be time for me to work out... and get ready for when the season starts.”
Luckily for Smith, Kyle Singler and Kyrie Irving—as well as Mason Plumlee, if the underclassman chooses to test the NBA waters—Duke’s players are not alone in figuring out their future. In addition to their coaches and family members, the Blue Devils may choose to lean on the Student-Athlete Counseling Committee, a voluntary source Duke offers its basketball players to prepare them for their post-graduate careers.
Duke law professor Paul Haagen chairs the committee, and his job is multi-faceted: He looks at contracts, helps pick out agents and offers objective advice based on information he receives from a variety of sources embedded in the NBA. The level of involvement with a player differs based on his interest. With some, Haagen only looks over a contract once. With others, he is heavily involved. Haagen estimates he met with Shane Battier 20 times.
The law professor said he has not yet been in contact with Singler, Smith or Irving, but Smith said he plans on utilizing the lawyer’s services in the near future.
And when they do meet, Haagen is prepared to help guide him through an unusual and dangerous off-season.
“No one knows how long the lockout will be.... My guess is, I would be surprised if they lose this season,” Haagen said. “But I certainly know some people think that’s possible.”
The draftees and the lockout
While Haagen is prepared to advise the graduating seniors that the lockout may last for an indefinite amount of time, the actual length of it doesn’t matter much for the upperclassmen’s plans—they’re going pro anyway. Unlike the underclassmen, they have no choice but to enter the draft.
“They don’t really have any choice how to deal with it,” Haagen said. “The lockout, if and when it comes, will come. They can’t do anything about it.”
Luckily for Singler, Smith and Irving, all signs point to their pro careers starting off well. Singler, who averaged 16.9 points per game this season, and Smith, a finalist for the Naismith Award, are both projected to go in the first round. ESPN analyst Jay Bilas echoed those mock drafts, telling The Chronicle that he expects both to go in the first round.
“I think Nolan is going to be a good pro, middle of the first round,” Bilas said. “I think Kyle isn’t a great athlete or shooter, but he can do so many things that he can have a good career.”
The consensus on Irving, however, is that he is one of the best choices in the draft. Bilas thinks there is a very real chance that the freshman could be picked first.
“Having a dominant point guard is in vogue in the league right now,” Bilas said. “I think Kyrie, when he gets healthy, has proved he’s that type of player.”
Irving, who averaged 17.5 points per game this season in 11 contests, was unavailable for comment. However, head coach Mike Krzyzewski did say this in a statement Wednesday announcing Irving’s decision to declare for the NBA Draft:
“Our whole program is overjoyed with having Kyrie here for one year and that he has the chance now to pursue a dream of being a high draft pick and a great player in the NBA.... We look forward to continuing to work with him during the upcoming months leading to his entry into the NBA and afterwards while he is an NBA player.”
Before they are drafted, though, Irving, Singler and Smith will have to choose wisely in picking an agent. Haagen said that he would recommend one with “a good handle on the collective bargaining situation” as well as a good relationship with the players’ union. That way, Smith and Singler will be informed about any progress or problems that come during negotiation with teams.
Haagen will also recommend an agent with experience and knowledge pertaining to international basketball. Going abroad to play during the lockout will be difficult—an influx of American pros playing overseas will quickly fill up the available slots for foreign-born players in Europe, Asia and elsewhere. It will be necessary to have someone who could ensure a slot on one of those teams if the seniors chose to go abroad. And it will be necessary that the agent knows to negotiate a clause that allows the Americans to come back to play in the NBA if the season starts back up in, for example, December.
“The sophistication of the representative becomes more critical than it would in a normal year,” Haagen said.
Having a place to work out will also be an issue for the seniors if there is a lockout. Drafted players are not allowed to use the team facilities and may be forced to hire trainers and use expensive private gyms.
Smith said he may come back to Durham to stay in shape—and he said Singler, despite his West Coast upbringing, could join him. In coming back to Duke during the break in action, Smith can once again take advantage of the first-class facilities the basketball program offers. And he can take advantage of one of his favorite perks of living in a small town like Durham.
“There’s no traffic,” Smith said with a laugh. “I like that about Durham—it’s a lot better than driving in D.C.”
Plumlee’s decision
Underclassmen weighing the decision to go pro have a much trickier scenario facing them than seniors like Singler and Smith. Before the May 8 deadline, Plumlee will have to forecast whether a lockout will happen, and if so, how long it will be.
If the lockout lasts a week, not much will change. Endorsement deals may be smaller because of a lack of positive vibe around the league, Haagen said, but, otherwise, things will stay similar to before. If the lockout lasts a month, though, Plumlee will have to deal with extended time away from the public eye. And he will have to pay to stay in shape by hiring his own personal trainers.
“They are completely on their own,” Haagen said. “So [they’ll] want to have clarity with [their] agent[s] about what kind of financial responsibility they’ll have for paying for the workout regimen, trainer.”
And if the lockout goes for a whole year, then the player misses out on a year of coaching and will have to deal with the same crowded international market that Irving, Smith, Singler and many others would face.
“You have to think, ‘How long do you think this is going to last?’” Haagen said. “If it’s a week, then probably the lockout shouldn’t factor deeply in your plans. If this is a year, it almost certainly would be wrong to come out.... If it’s half-way in between, though, the thought is, ‘What do you care about?’
“If you were coming back to a loaded team, and you were going to make a deep run, and you might be a national champion on the cover of Sports Illustrated, that’s a pretty big upside.”
Compounding the issue for Plumlee is that his draft status might not be as high if he waits a year, and he may face a reduced rookie pay scale.
There’s also the high possibility that he will be a first-round pick: Plumlee appeared on many mock drafts in the No. 18-22 range late this year. Scouts love his athleticism and his upside and are willing to look past his lack of offensive production.
“He’s making strides,” Bilas said. “Offensively, his game is behind the curve. He’s not a finished product yet, but there’s nothing wrong with that.”
