The Blue Devils have seemingly faced every type of frustration imaginable in 2016—season-ending injuries to key players, double-digit losses with miscues in all phases of the game, controversial calls that have swung potential upsets and most recently hard-fought comebacks that have come up just short.
A third straight blowout loss to Duke's rival Thursday would add yet another setback to what has seemed like a nightmare season, but an upset win could give the Blue Devils late life in their push for a fifth straight bowl appearance.
Duke will host No. 15 North Carolina Thursday at 7:30 p.m. at Wallace Wade Stadium for Senior Night hoping to reverse an alarming trend from its last two games against the Tar Heels. The Blue Devils have been outscored 111-51 since beating North Carolina twice in a row, and their memorable 33-30 win in 2012 is the team's only victory in its last 13 home games against their Tobacco Road rival.
After pushing then-No. 23 Virginia Tech—which is tied atop the Coastal Division with the Tar Heels—to the brink last week only to come up short again, the Blue Devils hope to combine the emotion of rivalry week and Senior Night to lay the foundation for another upset as a double-digit underdog.
But after pulling out several close games from 2013-2015, Duke has seen that trend reverse this season, dropping three straight one-possession games late in the fourth quarter. The Blue Devils have a short week of practice to find a way to get back on track, and immediately went to work after a three-point loss to the Hokies.
"You don’t whine and you don’t complain, you just pick the things to work on, pick the things you believe are going to make a difference," Duke head coach David Cutcliffe said.
After honoring injured redshirt senior captains Thomas Sirk, Jela Duncan and DeVon Edwards, the Blue Devils (3-6, 0-5 in the ACC) will turn their attention to slowing down North Carolina's high-powered offense that averages more than 34 points per game.
As it has done against other up-tempo, explosive units, Duke will likely try to lean on the running game to control the pace and keep Tar Heel star quarterback Mitch Trubisky on the sidelines. Led by quarterback Daniel Jones' career-high 99 rushing yards and two touchdowns, the Blue Devils racked up 227 yards on the ground to keep pace with Virginia Tech despite limited success through the air.
Against a defense that allows less than 200 passing yards per game, a similar approach might be needed with junior running back Shaun Wilson probable after exiting Saturday's game following a helmet-to-helmet hit.
But even if Jones is able to find more of a rhythm in the passing game like he did against Georgia Tech Oct. 29, Duke will have to make the most of its red zone opportunities against one of the most complete offenses it has played all year. Last week, the Blue Devils had a 30-yard field goal blocked and returned for a touchdown to break a 7-7 tie in the second quarter, completely changing the complexion of the game.
Duke is now 3-of-8 on field goals this season, and will have to be cautious if it lines up for another one Thursday against a Tar Heel special teams unit that has already blocked several kicks this season.
“Red zone scoring opportunities are always huge,” Cutcliffe said. “We spent a lot of time [at practice] in the area of the red zone offensively.”
If the Blue Devils falter, North Carolina (7-2, 5-1) has the weapons around Trubisky to make Duke pay for its mistakes for a third straight year. The Tar Heels have five players at skill positions who average at least 48 yards per game—two running backs and three wide receivers—and take full advantage of the hurry-up offense to make opponents tire.
The Blue Devils have gotten burned in one-on-one coverage against North Carolina in their last two meetings, so one key to the matchup is whether Duke can limit the explosive plays that have defined many of its losses.
Defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' unit was able to keep another red-hot offense in Louisville off-balance earlier in the year, and despite previous woes against the Tar Heels, the defense thinks it has the tools to make Thursday's contest another close one.
“We’ve seen them before, and we’ve seen offenses like them,” redshirt senior defensive tackle A.J. Wolf said. “The spread is pretty common these days, so it’s not too big of a learning curve when you have to prepare for another spread team.”
Wolf has energized the Blue Devil pass rush this year with 5.5 of the team's 27 sacks—they had 17 all of last season—and will look to corral North Carolina star running backs Elijah Hood and T.J. Logan along with Duke's other defensive linemen and linebackers.
Redshirt freshman Joe Giles-Harris and sophomore Ben Humphreys lead the Blue Devils in tackles—Humphreys was named ACC Linebacker of the Week after posting 16 last week—but will have to stay disciplined against the Tar Heel play-action passing game, which sets up many of the team's big plays.
Duke is 1-9 in its last 10 conference games, so another strong effort without a win likely would not be much of a comfort for a program that has gotten used to the postseason.
"North Carolina’s got a good football team, [but] the focus is going to continue to be on [us], doing the things we have to do to simply continue to grow and get better,” Cutcliffe said.
Amrith Ramkumar contributed reporting.
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